Passport is now part of human.tech

TL;DR

• Emerging networks like Scroll and Linea have the data insights available to them to airdrop to mostly humans, and the community quality will reflect those decisions.

• Networks with higher proportions of real human users show greater potential for long-term stability and growth, as opposed to those dominated by Sybil attackers.

• Active participation across multiple networks is a sign of genuine user interest and long-term commitment, particularly evident in mature networks like Optimism.

• By utilizing Passport XYZ’s tools, networks can better identify and nurture real human users, crucial for fostering sustainable growth from TGE onwards.

We’re on a mission to enable real humans to prove their humanity in privacy preserving ways. It’s through this quest that we support the growth of a healthier, more sustainable Ethereum ecosystem by understanding the factors that drive long-term user engagement and network stability where real humans participate. Passport XYZ has been closely monitoring the evolution of Layer 2s (L2s) like Optimism, zkSync, Linea, and Scroll to understand and predict the success of token launch events for leading projects in the space. Reach out if we can support your ecosystem as well.

As the Ethereum ecosystem continues to evolve, the communities supporting L2s play a crucial role in determining their success. Differences in user quality and engagement amongst networks have become increasingly pronounced particularly during events like token generation events (TGEs) and airdrops. Each L2 we analyzed is at a different stage of maturity, a factor with a strong influence on both short-term airdrop outcomes and long-term stability of a network’s community and sentiment.

This analysis compares 1,000 of the most active or prominent wallets on each network:

• Optimism: 1,000 most active wallets over the last 30 days.

• Linea: 1,000 wallets with the highest Voyage user points.

• Scroll: 1,000 wallets with the highest Canvas marks.

• zkSync: 1,000 wallets with the highest amounts of the $ZK airdrop claimed.

This analysis also leverages our Model Based Detection (MBD) APIs and briefly touches on Passport Scores as well. MBD returns a score of between 0-100 (with confidence intervals) where 0 is known Sybil and 100 is known human. This API can be used to score wallets based on their onchain activity and requires no user action.

A key takeaway from this comparison is that there is a highly visible, varying quality of users across these networks. We often see user quality degrade as a network approaches TGE, then often quality of users rebounds as low quality users move on to the next network that is expected to do an airdrop. Quality users are those who are more likely human, and using apps for meaningful utility (not because of incentives), and this can be difficult to discern without deep analysis.

Optimism boasts a higher percentage of high-quality users (more likely human, based on MBD scores), while zkSync in their cohort shows a significant proportion of the opposite, many users who appear to be Sybil attackers. The contrast in user quality between these network’s cohorts raises important considerations for future airdrops by Linea and Scroll. One ultimate question to ask is – How might networks airdrop to the highest quality of users, and not just Sybils?

Our recent analysis of zkSync’s $ZK airdrop—which took place just last month—highlighted the positive effect that airdropping to real humans can have (ie, those with a higher Passport score). In the current analysis with our MBD, we see 99% of prominent wallets who claimed $ZK were identified as likely Sybil, exhibiting behaviors typical of Sybil attackers: rapid token dumping, minimal cross-chain activity, and participation in multiple airdrops without further engagement.

Compared to other L2 networks we analyzed, zkSync’s cohort has the highest percentage of users in the "High Sybil Probability (MBD scores of 0-25)" group, with very few users in the higher score groups. This does not mean 99% of zkSync’s users are Sybil; it means zkSync airdropped the largest amounts of $ZK to a very large number of Sybils.  How might other L2s learn from this?

Average Scores with Confidence Intervals

Linea and Scroll, while still in earlier stages of maturity (ie, no TGE), have shown promise in building more robust and engaged user bases, ones that appear less Sybil. 50% of Linea users and 60% of Scroll users have scores that are comparable to the lower-quality segment of zkSync users. This suggests that, although some token dumping is expected post-TGE, these networks are better positioned to experience more stable post-airdrop outcomes, fostering long-term engagement and growth. This assumes they use their points and marks as primary criteria for the airdrop. The points and marks program offer insight into the overall network’s user quality, though it's likely not a true random sample. Ahead of TGE, analysis of the respective L2s still shows there is an opportunity to remove Sybil users, and reward the real humans on the networks – something all farmers should want as it ensures more tokens go to real humans and not large sybil bot operations.

Shifting gears, we were interested in understanding if these user segment’s interactions on other chains would help showcase quality. Essentially, are there insights from reviewing interactions on networks other than the network that is approaching a TGE. We used Optimism as a benchmark for maturity in the L2 space, though others could have also been used. Since OPs initial airdrop in June 2022, the network has cultivated a notably engaged and high-quality user base. The most active wallets on Optimism demonstrate a long-term commitment and genuine interest in the Ethereum ecosystem, with diversified transaction patterns across multiple chains.

As networks like Optimism mature, they experience a decrease in farming activities and a rise in genuine user engagement—factors crucial for long-term success. This evolution sets Optimism apart from newer ecosystems like Linea and Scroll, or the challenges faced by zkSync. You can see in the chart below, OP users have an average number of transactions, across multiple L2s, at a much higher volume than other chain’s users.

Linea’s cohort appears to be the most comparable to OP’s users, while Scroll’s is the next most comparable. Both networks have implemented point-based systems to identify and reward their top users, resulting in a more engaged and potentially more loyal user base on their respective network, but it’s the activity across networks that also indicates quality and likelihood of unique humanity.

Scroll recently introduced its Canvas platform which highlights projects building in the Scroll ecosystem, and allows users to claim badges for interacting with those projects. This allows Scroll to harness its momentum and attract users aligned with the network’s long-term goals. For a network, deciding on airdrop eligibility criteria can be hard given the depth of projects, and activity on the network. Canvas offers a starting point for both users, and the network itself to review user quality and actions of high quality users.

Linea has launched their Voyage campaign, and is driving Verax attestations, which is a helpful signal on user activity. Based on the transaction volume across L2s, and the overall strength their cohort has (based on MBD scores), their TGE is well-positioned to capitalize on its current high-quality user base. There is always the open concern that pushing back the TGE may allow more farming, but with proper anti-Sybil analysis it may be less of a concern.

For reference, below is the % of transactions per chain for each of the L2’s cohorts. Scroll and Linea users are active across mainnet still, while OP users are more dedicated L2 users.

The analysis of user behavior and network maturity across L2 solutions highlights the importance of understanding the different phases of a network’s development, and how the respective ecosystem’s unique humanity composition shapes its outcomes. Mature networks like Optimism showcase resilience in handling challenges like farming and exhibit greater stability in both token price and market capitalization, even though they continue to airdrop to their community.

The path to success for L2 networks lies in their ability to foster real human engagement, strategically time TGEs, and learn from the lessons of their more mature peers. Emerging networks like Linea and Scroll have the potential to follow this path of maturity if they prioritize rewards for real humans. There are a multitude of data signals available to help ensure airdrops are fair, terms are well understood, and that these tokens go to real humans.

Passport XYZ plays a crucial role in this journey. By identifying real human users and nurturing communities committed to the long-term success of your network, Passport helps projects of all stages mature more effectively. Our solutions are easy to integrate and provide tailored analysis, onchain mechanisms to verify unique humanity, and industry-leading Unique Humanity Scoring—ensuring better outcomes for all EVM-compatible ecosystems, regardless of their stage in development.